Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5c5…6965 sports 101 markets active 6h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-14%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate58%58W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$30
other 25% −$1
weather 15% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 51 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 0% -12.8%
all 100 -15.2% -23.2% 58% 18% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 18% -23.1%
10% -30.6% 18% -30.4%
15% -37.3% 17% -37.1%
20% -43.4% 14% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses58 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage115d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 22 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $19 7h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $21 7h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $0 7h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $20 7h
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 174 history records