Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc5c7…b81d crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+5%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%44W / 27L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$10
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 82% 41% -8.6%
≤30d 23 +3.2% -6.6% 83% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 71 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 41% -7.9%
all 71 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 41% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -7.9%
10% -24.5% 24% -16.7%
15% -31.8% 18% -24.8%
20% -38.4% 13% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses44 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage45d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $46 +$29 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $92 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $38 +$36 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$8 -17%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $46 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $92 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $38 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $38 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records