Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

C5 0xc5c8…76b4 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,831 (-4%) realized −$1,825 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate47%85W / 94L

Whale WR59%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$283per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$542est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$222

7 days−$4,800

14 days−$4,230

30 days−$3,307

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-60.6%	-64.4%	19%	19%	-52.3%
≤30d	32	-34.3%	-40.6%	34%	34%	-34.2%
≤90d	165	-9.9%	-18.5%	45%	42%	-15.0%
all	179	-7.4%	-16.2%	47%	44%	-13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	44%	-13.4%
10%	-24.3%	40%	-21.7%
15%	-31.6%	37%	-29.3%
20%	-38.3%	32%	-36.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -6% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$195 vs −$199 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage

Net worth$494

Realized−$1,825

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses85 / 94

Whale WR (big bets)59%

Est. fees paid−$542

Open positions3

Markets (closed)179 / 182

History coverage204d

Avg bet$283

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 179 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$150	$147	−$3 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$304	+$222	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$201	−$200	-99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 17	$153	−$153	-100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Jun 17	$203	−$203	-100%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$204	−$204	-100%
Wild vs. Avalanche	Jun 17	$204	−$204	-100%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers	Jun 17	$304	−$304	-100%
Bruins vs. Sabres	Jun 17	$813	−$348	-43%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Jun 17	$202	−$202	-100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens	Jun 17	$202	−$202	-100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	Jun 17	$100	−$100	-100%
Wild vs. Stars	Jun 17	$335	−$335	-100%
Penguins vs. Flyers	Jun 17	$406	−$406	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 17	$507	−$507	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 17	$507	−$507	-100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Jun 17	$811	−$811	-100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Jun 17	$711	−$711	-100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Jun 17	$510	−$510	-100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Jun 17	$611	−$611	-100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$152	−$150	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$505	+$252	+50%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Jun 15	$1,518	+$1,024	+67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 15	$254	+$218	+86%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$204	−$8	-4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 13	$203	+$189	+93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 11	$254	+$237	+93%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$305	+$334	+109%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	May 28	$506	+$250	+49%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	May 27	$506	+$353	+70%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	May 24	$200	+$35	+17%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	May 24	$204	+$284	+140%
Avalanche vs. Wild	May 12	$355	+$261	+74%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks	May 12	$202	+$72	+36%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks	May 10	$304	+$284	+93%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights	May 07	$203	+$273	+134%
Wild vs. Avalanche	May 05	$202	+$110	+55%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5	May 04	$152	+$119	+78%
Canadiens vs. Lightning	May 04	$204	+$284	+140%
Sabres vs. Bruins	May 02	$203	+$182	+90%
Lightning vs. Canadiens	May 02	$254	+$218	+86%
Golden Knights vs. Utah	May 02	$304	+$273	+90%
Utah vs. Golden Knights	Apr 30	$558	+$497	+89%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5	Apr 30	$202	−$155	-77%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	Apr 29	$203	−$89	-44%
Golden Knights vs. Utah	Apr 28	$300	+$201	+67%
Flyers vs. Penguins	Apr 28	$200	+$159	+79%
Sabres vs. Bruins	Apr 27	$150	−$150	-100%
Avalanche vs. Kings	Apr 27	$200	−$200	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Apr 27	$200	−$200	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$153	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$201	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$152	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$304	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$505	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	36¢	$196	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$204	5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	53¢	$254	5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY New York Yankees	51¢	$203	5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$153	9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	51¢	$254	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$305	10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Hurricanes	55¢	$507	12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Hurricanes	55¢	$507	16d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1,518	17d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	BUY Canadiens	31¢	$510	20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	SELL Hurricanes	90¢	$756	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	59¢	$506	22d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	BUY Avalanche	33¢	$102	23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	BUY Avalanche	35¢	$102	23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	BUY Avalanche	53¢	$507	24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	60¢	$202	24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	BUY Hurricanes	57¢	$304	24d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	BUY Avalanche	52¢	$203	25d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	BUY Avalanche	54¢	$203	25d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL Yes	37¢	$235	26d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	BUY Canadiens	17¢	$205	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.63 · official $493.63 (match) · 458 history records