Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5c8…6a35 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%46W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% $0
world 18% −$3
other 17% +$1
sports 14% $0
economics 13% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 24 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -2.0% -11.4% 34% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses46 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage465d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $97 −$3 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $89 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $89 +$3 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $114 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $572 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $572 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $596 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $18 +$1 +4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jan 31 $5 $0 +3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $0 $0 -96%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 01 $3 $0 -4%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $8 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $10 $0 -3%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 in July? Jul 26 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $27 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $94 54m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $97 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $86 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $89 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $48 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $89 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $102 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $92 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $89 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $89 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $89 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $7 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $91 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $91 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $79 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 10d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 50¢ $46 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 50¢ $11 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records