Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc5cc…3f0f sports 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 750d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$242 (+1%) realized +$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%159W / 123L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$93
14 days+$83
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$558
other 25% +$590
culture 16% +$430
politics 4% −$110
economics 0% −$52
crypto 0% −$51
tech 0% −$10
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +84.3% +66.8% 100% 100% +66.8%
≤30d 3 +23.5% +11.7% 67% 67% +56.8%
≤90d 21 +21.5% +10.0% 48% 48% -58.7%
all 282 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 53% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 53% -8.2%
10% -16.8% 46% -17.0%
15% -24.8% 37% -25.0%
20% -32.2% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$49 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

750d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses159 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)282 / 284
History coverage750d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $110 +$93 +84%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $41 +$35 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $635 −$635 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $4 +$6 +152%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $15 +$12 +82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 +$16 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $63 +$72 +114%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Mar 19 $5 +$12 +233%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 +$24 +488%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $263 −$53 -20%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $200 +$825 +412%
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98t Mar 16 $100 +$367 +367%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Feb 04 $114 −$31 -27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$2 +25%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$5 +46%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Play Feb 01 $15 +$6 +37%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) Jan 14 $55 −$53 -96%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 14 $200 +$15 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Dec 17 $50 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $110 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 16d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $240 40d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 36¢ $530 54d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 35¢ $90 56d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 57¢ $14 56d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 61d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 41¢ $10 62d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 62d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 67d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 67d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 72d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 72d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 72d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 72d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 72d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 88d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 30¢ $5 89d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 89d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 89d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 89d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 90d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 90d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.17 · official $100.17 (match) · 772 history records