Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5cd…9aa5 sports 799 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$321 (+0%) realized +$687 · open −$366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%607W / 167L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$78
14 days−$1,331
30 days−$819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$807
other 44% −$1
weather 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$232
world 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 20% -2.7%
≤30d 212 -50.4% -55.1% 34% 6% -16.0%
≤90d 482 -19.0% -26.7% 68% 6% -10.5%
all 774 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -9.1%
10% -19.1% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 8% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$4,945
Realized+$687
Unrealized−$366
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses607 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions24
Markets (closed)774 / 799
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $731 $528 −$202 (-28%)
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 93¢ 99¢ $316 $334 +$18 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $139 $334 +$195 (+140%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 83¢ $364 $332 −$32 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $500 $317 −$183 (-37%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $283 $292 +$9 (+3%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 97¢ $286 $290 +$4 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 95¢ $276 $285 +$9 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $303 $259 −$44 (-14%)
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $243 $247 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $171 $210 +$39 (+23%)
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $191 $198 +$7 (+4%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $173 $193 +$20 (+11%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $189 $191 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $203 $184 −$19 (-9%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $156 $171 +$15 (+10%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $302 $120 −$181 (-60%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $70 $100 +$30 (+43%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 90¢ 85¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes 99¢ 61¢ $99 $61 −$38 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $33 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Will Donyell Malen score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 40¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $26 +$1 +3%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cu Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 26 $75 +$14 +19%
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $96 +$4 +5%
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr Jun 25 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $286 +$38 +13%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $285 +$14 +5%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $299 −$12 -4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $771 +$107 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $186 +$10 +5%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $124 +$21 +17%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $183 −$59 -32%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 +$5 +14%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $502 −$315 -63%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-03-08? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-09? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-05? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-08? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-05? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $81 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $100 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $191 6h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 30h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2 35h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $52 46h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $93 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $40 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $52 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $89 5d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $46 5d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $22 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $76 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 97¢ $17 6d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 97¢ $80 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,945.11 · official $4,944.78 (match) · 3500 history records