trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | May 21 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 21 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | Apr 30 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 29 | $3,150 | −$2,997 | -95% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 28 | $115 | −$115 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $110 | +$414 | +376% |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $463 | +$2,430 | +525% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Feb 25 | $1,159 | −$1,159 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 14 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 14% | 14% | -68.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.8% | 14% | -68.9% |
| 10% | -35.6% | 14% | -71.9% |
| 15% | -41.9% | 14% | -74.6% |
| 20% | -47.6% | 14% | -77.1% |