Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc5d0…3602 sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$740 (+7%) realized +$662 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days−$656
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$164
other 30% +$891
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +28.8% +16.6% 49% 49% -18.9%
≤30d 64 +31.2% +18.7% 52% 52% -9.6%
≤90d 64 +31.2% +18.7% 52% 52% -9.6%
all 70 +31.6% +19.0% 54% 51% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 51% -4.1%
10% +7.7% 51% -13.2%
15% -2.7% 46% -21.6%
20% -12.3% 40% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$107 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$662
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage233d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 66¢ $88 $133 +$45 (+51%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 68¢ $32 $68 +$36 (+111%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $94 −$92 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $85 −$84 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $21 +$29 +144%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $55 +$45 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $54 +$46 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $47 +$53 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $66 +$44 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $59 −$58 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $66 −$65 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $29 +$71 +244%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Jens Hauge: 1+ shots Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $462 −$462 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$82 +162%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$30 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $113 +$187 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $89 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $94 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $85 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 20h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $100 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $21 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $55 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $54 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 67¢ $29 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 67¢ $8 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 67¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $59 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $66 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $66 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $50 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $27 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.03 · official $203.03 (match) · 161 history records