Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc5d2…3bf0
other · 65 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$27 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses45 / 5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)50 / 65
History coverage124d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 15 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 83¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+39%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $17 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $29 +$6 +22%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $23 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 05 $2 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $6 +$4 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 05 $19 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 28 $17 −$10 -55%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $18 −$15 -85%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $38 +$4 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $26 +$9 +32%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 03 $8 +$2 +32%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 03 $10 $0 +4%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $9 $0 +5%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 18 be less than 2 Feb 27 $0 $0 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 27 $6 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 27 $6 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 27 $6 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 27 $8 $0 +5%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Feb 17 $8 $0 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 17 $1 +$4 +300%
North Korea missile launch by February 14? Feb 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% −$4
finance 21% +$11
world 16% +$2
crypto 14% +$4
politics 10% +$5
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 24m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $11 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $12 7d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $9 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $14 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $14 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $8 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 23d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $17 23d
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto SELL Nothing 92¢ $5 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $10 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $11 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $14 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $25 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $12 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 93¢ $13 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +13.8% +2.9% 88% 38% -0.3%
≤90d 32 +1.2% -8.5% 88% 19% -7.7%
all 50 +8.7% -1.6% 90% 20% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 20% -6.7%
10% -11.0% 12% -15.7%
15% -19.6% 6% -23.8%
20% -27.5% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.61 · official $65.49 · 205 history records