Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc5d3…d640
politics · 34 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
+$50,016 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$99,323 · open −$49,307
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$67,276
Realized+$99,323
Unrealized−$49,307
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
Avg bet$18,220
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $116,583 $67,276 −$49,307 (-42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $23,747 $0 −$23,747 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 20 $973 +$6,158 +633%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $23,747 −$23,747 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $48 −$48 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 01 $9,930 +$4,910 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $15,235 +$13,266 +87%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $33,750 +$59,604 +177%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $16,029 +$968 +6%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Mar 23 $66 −$53 -81%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 20 $57,438 +$815 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $52,085 +$5,150 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $48,947 +$3,339 +7%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Dec 04 $10,319 +$1,680 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $36,394 +$554 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $2,076 +$543 +26%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $18,158 +$1,738 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $27,952 +$14,399 +52%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Aug 20 $19,420 +$580 +3%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Jul 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jul 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Jul 03 $298 +$45 +15%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 11 $1,340 +$660 +49%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 11 $2,660 +$1,140 +43%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 11 $18,934 +$231 +1%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Jan 19 $13,433 +$1,696 +13%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 21 $9,302 +$698 +8%
Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris? Oct 29 $8,453 +$3,018 +36%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 27 $18,819 +$181 +1%
Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign? Aug 01 $1,878 −$1,716 -91%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Aug 01 $14,263 +$1,946 +14%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 01 $6,000 −$2,820 -47%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 21 $7,280 +$720 +10%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 18 $11,338 +$2,389 +21%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 18 $16,273 +$1,317 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$11,850
politics 32% +$16,836
economics 28% +$19,107
other 3% +$527
crypto 2% +$1,696
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,017 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,800 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $160 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $217 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $97 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $400 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $400 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $400 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +633.2% +563.4% 100% 100% +563.4%
≤90d 9 +74.8% +58.2% 67% 44% +26.1%
all 33 +20.5% +9.0% 79% 42% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 42% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.4% 27% -2.0%
15% -10.9% 24% -11.5%
20% -19.7% 12% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67,276.42 · official $67,276.42 (match) · 735 history records