trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 0% | 0% | -13.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +2.6% | -7.1% | 31% | 8% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +2.6% | -7.1% | 31% | 8% | -8.5% |
| all | 26 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 42% | 8% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.6% | 8% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 4% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -30.2% | 4% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 4% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 79¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$6 | -29% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $79 | $0 | -0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $18 | +$11 | +65% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 09 | $29 | +$1 | +3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 08 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $114 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 22 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 12 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 11 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | May 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 06 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -0% |