Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C5 0xc5d3…7acb sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1,538 (-44%) realized −$1,521 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$522
14 days+$509
30 days+$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,579
sports 17% +$433
other 13% −$13
politics 2% −$60
finance 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+68.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +190.6% +162.9% 50% 50% +94.1%
≤30d 17 +139.3% +116.5% 41% 41% +67.9%
≤90d 17 +139.3% +116.5% 41% 41% +67.9%
all 26 +85.8% +68.1% 31% 31% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.1% 31% -45.6%
10% +52.0% 31% -50.8%
15% +37.3% 31% -55.5%
20% +23.8% 31% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +196% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$106 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$1,521
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage692d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $242 $225 −$17 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $53 +$173 +326%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $71 −$9 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla Jun 15 $51 +$39 +77%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $56 +$57 +102%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$35 +139%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$95 +462%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$101 +1962%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$82 +115%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $13 −$13 -97%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Cobra (BO3) Nov 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Roar Gaming (BO3) Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DegenPing win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 17 $18 +$88 +497%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 30 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 30 $1,023 −$536 -52%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 30 $744 −$462 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 16 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 78¢ $46 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 25¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Colombia wi BUY 29¢ $32 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $24 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $62 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $19 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $10 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla SELL 87¢ $90 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 89¢ $56 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 90¢ $57 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $41 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi BUY 24¢ $26 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherla BUY 49¢ $51 14h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 18¢ $18 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 28¢ $13 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 20¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $15 33h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany BUY 11¢ $21 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 93¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.03 · official $256.03 · 97 history records