Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

C5 0xc5d9…b188 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$792 (+11%) realized +$1,092 · open −$300

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$301per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$89est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$362

7 days+$397

14 days+$397

30 days+$397

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-11.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-0.9%	-10.4%	55%	45%	-3.4%
≤30d	22	-2.5%	-11.8%	55%	41%	-3.4%
≤90d	22	-2.5%	-11.8%	55%	41%	-3.4%
all	22	-2.5%	-11.8%	55%	41%	-3.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.8%	41%	-3.4%
10%	-20.2%	27%	-12.6%
15%	-27.9%	27%	-21.1%
20%	-35.0%	23%	-28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -21% → late +16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$136 vs −$123 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$382

Realized+$1,092

Unrealized−$300

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$89

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage8d

Avg bet$301

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	Nigma Galaxy	39¢	100¢	$149	$382	+$232 (+156%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	Rune Eaters	33¢	0¢	$300	$0	−$300 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner	Jun 21	$1,000	+$15	+2%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	Jun 20	$104	−$101	-98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Jun 19	$208	+$215	+103%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner	Jun 19	$510	−$500	-98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 19	$500	+$9	+2%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter	Jun 19	$203	+$172	+85%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	Jun 19	$668	+$360	+54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$204	−$200	-98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am	Jun 18	$858	+$402	+47%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$309	−$105	-34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 18	$102	+$286	+280%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$164	−$161	-98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 18	$5	+$9	+180%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	Jun 17	$129	+$26	+20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$501	+$54	+11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$464	+$79	+17%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 16	$34	−$33	-99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 16	$331	−$100	-30%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner	Jun 15	$41	−$11	-26%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group	Jun 14	$99	−$19	-19%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$21	+$1	+3%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$3	−$1	-39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	38¢	$50	1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	BUY Rune Eaters	35¢	$204	1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	40¢	$102	2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	BUY Rune Eaters	29¢	$102	2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner	SELL Grind Back	100¢	$1,015	11h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner	BUY Grind Back	98¢	$1,000	12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY Grind Back	10¢	$51	31h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY Grind Back	6¢	$1	31h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY Grind Back	16¢	$51	31h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner	BUY PlayTime	39¢	$204	42h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner	BUY PlayTime	7¢	$103	42h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner	BUY PlayTime	33¢	$204	43h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	75¢	$5	43h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	48¢	$203	43h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY PlayTime	98¢	$500	46h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter	BUY InterActive Philippines	53¢	$203	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY PlayTime	27¢	$56	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	40¢	$49	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	29¢	$58	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	20¢	$42	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY PlayTime	39¢	$2	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY PlayTime	49¢	$157	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	36¢	$95	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	36¢	$51	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY PlayTime	48¢	$102	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America	BUY LGD Gaming	52¢	$56	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	BUY PlayTime	30¢	$102	2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner	BUY PlayTime	28¢	$102	2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am	BUY Amaru Gaming	83¢	$132	2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am	BUY Amaru Gaming	27¢	$23	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.06 · official $382.06 (match) · 82 history records