Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5da…5d4a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1
other 22% −$2
politics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -9.1% -17.7% 28% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 3% -10.3%
10% -25.6% 3% -18.8%
15% -32.8% 3% -26.7%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $18 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $74 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Oct 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $2 $0 -8%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $51 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $51 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records