Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5db…23e0 crypto 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+0%) realized +$103 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate87%515W / 80L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$5
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$119
sports 1% −$31
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 60% -31.1%
≤30d 341 +1.2% -8.5% 87% 13% -10.4%
≤90d 591 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 16% -9.6%
all 595 -1.1% -10.5% 87% 16% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 16% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 7% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$49 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses515 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)595 / 598
History coverage122d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 24¢ 50¢ $11 $23 +$12 (+109%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$7 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $111 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.35 · official $47.35 (match) · 2077 history records