Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc5db…b42d sports 1224 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,630 (-10%) realized −$6,630 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%1077W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,615
other 5% +$15
crypto 5% +$32
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.8% -12.0% 92% 14% -9.9%
≤30d 335 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 16% -9.5%
≤90d 1222 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 23% -11.5%
all 1222 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 23% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 23% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 7% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 4% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$47 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$6,630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1077 / 145
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1222 / 1224
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 99¢ 97¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $73 +$4 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $185 +$15 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $65 $0 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $64 +$5 +7%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $61 +$3 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $110 +$6 +5%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Parks (-1.5) vs Brockmann (+1.5) Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $55 +$4 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $67 +$7 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $32 +$2 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $30 $0 +2%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $50 −$25 -50%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $30 18m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 100¢ $38 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $45 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 95¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 94¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $23 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $73 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $65 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $22 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $59 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $54 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 73¢ $28 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 73¢ $26 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $50 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $10 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $70 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $49 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $16 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $65 11h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $62 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $64 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $64 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 97¢ $11 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 94¢ $50 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $61 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.50 · official $74.50 (match) · 3500 history records