Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5e3…298c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-8%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$1
sports 24% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 33% -23.1%
≤30d 6 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 33% -23.1%
≤90d 6 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 33% -23.1%
all 6 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 33% -23.1%
10% -42.2% 33% -30.4%
15% -47.8% 0% -37.2%
20% -52.9% 0% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -83%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $4 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 9¢ $1 8h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind SELL ONIC 4¢ $0 12h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 55¢ $1 13h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind SELL Bigetron by Vitality 44¢ $1 13h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 77¢ $1 14h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $3 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.92 · official $10.92 (match) · 19 history records