Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5e4…4be8 other 134 markets active 8h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$214 (-5%) realized −$259 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%44W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$173
politics 32% −$135
other 20% +$75
crypto 7% −$1
economics 3% −$69
sports 1% +$88
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 25% +6.1%
≤30d 7 +71.1% +54.8% 43% 29% -12.5%
≤90d 34 +52.3% +37.8% 41% 35% -7.3%
all 122 +17.7% +6.5% 36% 31% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 31% -15.1%
10% -3.7% 24% -23.2%
15% -13.0% 20% -30.7%
20% -21.5% 16% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)122 / 134
History coverage565d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $111 $169 +$58 (+52%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $120 $65 −$55 (-46%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 70¢ 79¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $14 $34 +$20 (+143%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+17%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $14 $22 +$7 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $97 +$5 +5%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $25 +$20 +80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$88 +733%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 −$36 -78%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $204 −$86 -42%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $60 −$10 -16%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 08 $78 −$2 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $40 +$20 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $42 +$30 +73%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 24 $7 −$4 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $64 −$42 -66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $141 −$34 -24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $64 +$33 +52%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $102 +$48 +47%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $15 +$27 +180%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $194 +$5 +2%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 08 $34 −$14 -42%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $30 +$18 +58%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $31 +$46 +148%
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Apr 02 $70 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 02 $162 +$26 +16%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $79 +$10 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $65 +$24 +37%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 07 $80 +$18 +22%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 05 $239 −$39 -16%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $3 +$56 +1709%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $135 −$7 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $130 −$130 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 27 $35 −$11 -31%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $32 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $1 4d
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $97 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 4¢ $2 5d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 18d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $45 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 25d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 26d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26d
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 37d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 50¢ $50 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 40d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 77¢ $76 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.09 · official $411.59 (match) · 616 history records