Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc5e6…aff4 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 22% −$1
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -6.2% -15.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 45 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage467d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $45 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $48 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 -11%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 29 $12 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 12 $1 $0 -0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? Mar 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $48 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $44 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $44 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $44 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $7 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $37 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $45 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $9 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.14 · official $48.14 (match) · 149 history records