Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc5ee…7183 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%46W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$5
crypto 8% +$1
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 57 -1.7% -11.1% 81% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses46 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage522d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $7 $0 +2%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $5,397 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 14 $24 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 31d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $13 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 63d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 121d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $26 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1 180d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $38 182d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $32 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $23 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 334d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.12 (match) · 116 history records