Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C5 0xc5ee…efb7 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$299 (+11%) realized +$299 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate58%15W / 11L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$101per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+1.4%	-8.2%	58%	42%	+0.3%
≤30d	26	+1.4%	-8.2%	58%	42%	+0.3%
≤90d	26	+1.4%	-8.2%	58%	42%	+0.3%
all	26	+1.4%	-8.2%	58%	42%	+0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.2%	42%	+0.3%
10%	-17.0%	35%	-9.3%
15%	-25.0%	27%	-18.0%
20%	-32.4%	19%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$34 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$299

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses15 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage6d

Avg bet$101

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$90	+$14	+16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$69	−$10	-14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$21	−$17	-81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$104	+$33	+32%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$64	+$40	+62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$9	+$14	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 24	$17	−$1	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 24	$102	−$92	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 24	$91	+$6	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 24	$51	+$30	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 24	$50	+$3	+6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$378	+$45	+12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$259	+$118	+46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$146	+$113	+78%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$314	−$168	-54%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	−$4	-84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$293	+$25	+9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$229	+$64	+28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$106	+$133	+126%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$90	+$6	+6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	−$1	-7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$68	+$24	+36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$37	−$1	-3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$55	−$55	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$104	0m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	27¢	$20	10m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	86¢	$90	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	39¢	$31	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	39¢	$39	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$39	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$137	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	75¢	$104	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$64	13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$23	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$9	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	SELL Down	18¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	SELL Up	81¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records