Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc5f0…aaf0 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$688 (-11%) realized −$727 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$756
other 19% −$20
sports 1% +$29
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -46.7% -51.8% 0% 0% -51.8%
≤30d 1 -46.7% -51.8% 0% 0% -51.8%
≤90d 53 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 34% -20.6%
all 53 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 34% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -20.6%
10% -29.3% 23% -28.2%
15% -36.1% 13% -35.2%
20% -42.4% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$61 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$727
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage67d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 92¢ $23 $62 +$39 (+169%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $108 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 04 $1,008 −$974 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 04 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $19 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $911 +$103 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 03 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $7 +$9 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? May 02 $739 +$69 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 01 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 01 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 01 $10 +$20 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $205 −$2 -1%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $493 +$25 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $150 +$48 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 25 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 25 $57 −$37 -64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $400 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 24 $60 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 24 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 24 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $23 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $47 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 40¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? BUY Down 51¢ $1,008 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? SELL Up 100¢ $1,015 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? BUY Up 89¢ $911 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? BUY Up 83¢ $506 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? SELL Up 1¢ $0 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? BUY Up 7¢ $3 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? SELL Down 97¢ $808 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? BUY Down 93¢ $332 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? BUY Down 93¢ $201 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? BUY Down 78¢ $102 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? BUY Down 73¢ $102 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $11 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $12 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.90 · official $55.81 · 156 history records