Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5f7…8bf1 weather 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$752 (+4%) realized +$862 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate83%64W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$231
14 days+$498
30 days+$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 33% +$186
weather 26% −$54
sports 19% −$149
other 12% +$603
world 6% +$15
politics 3% +$8
crypto 1% +$6
tech 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 45% -3.8%
≤30d 37 +4.6% -5.4% 89% 35% -3.2%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 80% 33% -6.5%
all 77 +1.5% -8.2% 83% 32% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 32% -6.0%
10% -17.0% 21% -15.0%
15% -25.0% 13% -23.2%
20% -32.4% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$65 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$1,239
Realized+$862
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses64 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)77 / 82
History coverage287d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $954 $918 −$36 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Sweden 85¢ 58¢ $128 $88 −$40 (-31%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 28¢ $67 $28 −$40 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $151 +$44 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $85 +$15 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $79 +$21 +27%
Spread: Colombia (-5.5) Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 +$129 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $157 −$156 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $517 +$1 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,294 +$6 +0%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $301 +$32 +11%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $171 +$29 +17%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$176 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $99 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 08 $500 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $1,203 +$34 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $101 +$29 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $79 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22? May 26 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $456 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 14 $350 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? May 12 $252 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? May 10 $87 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1? May 07 $326 +$55 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 3 Apr 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $1,481 +$30 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23? Apr 24 $79 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24? Apr 24 $37 −$32 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? Apr 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $156 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $68 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 85¢ $128 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $100 10h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $151 17h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Scotland 100¢ $7 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 20h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $85 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 32h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $79 41h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $808 2d
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 100¢ $200 2d
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 93¢ $100 2d
Spread: Colombia (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 99¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $100 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $157 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 6d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 100¢ $1,199 6d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 100¢ $18 6d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $95 6d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 100¢ $500 6d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $95 7d
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY United States 98¢ $98 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,238.75 · official $1,239.75 (match) · 226 history records