Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5f8…f5cc other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 56L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$14
politics 20% −$15
other 14% +$10
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$83
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +3.5% -6.4% 17% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 60 +7.8% -2.5% 23% 17% -7.9%
all 72 +6.4% -3.7% 22% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 14% -9.3%
10% -12.9% 14% -18.0%
15% -21.4% 14% -25.9%
20% -29.1% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage616d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $18 +$11 +65%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $164 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $14 +$12 +90%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$4 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 35m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 9h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 29h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 30h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $18 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.12 · official $152.12 (match) · 348 history records