Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc5fa…bc7a politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 45L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$11
other 25% −$3
economics 5% −$1
world 5% +$49
sports 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +25.7% +13.7% 50% 25% -7.2%
≤90d 10 +44.3% +30.6% 60% 40% -7.0%
all 55 -44.4% -49.7% 18% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 13% -9.0%
10% -54.5% 5% -17.7%
15% -58.9% 5% -25.7%
20% -62.9% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -56% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×15.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage693d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $599 −$1 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$25 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $278 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $700 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $399 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $49 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 11 $5 +$15 +300%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? May 11 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Feb 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 28 $474 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $27 $0 -1%
Edmundo González arrested before October? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
MetaMask airdrop by September 30? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump be Speaker by October 1? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Mystics win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be more than 800 points scored NFL week 1? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Chicago Sky win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania Presidential Elec Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will J. B. Pritzker announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Aug 14 $3 $0 -7%
Will Japan win the 3rd most medals? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country win the 3rd most medals? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the United States win the 3rd most medals? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win the 3rd most medals? Aug 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another country win Gold in Men's Basketball? Aug 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $679 −$1 -0%
Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Democratic ticket be all male? Aug 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 07 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $692 −$1 -0%
Will another man be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 05 $693 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $40 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $126 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $169 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $169 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $170 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $25 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $278 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $278 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes $2 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $96 24d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $196 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $0 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records