Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc5fa…0ec8 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$347 (-3%) realized −$253 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$571
7 days−$428
14 days−$435
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$560
world 18% +$78
politics 3% +$28
economics 1% +$3
sports 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +6.5% -3.6% 86% 40% -14.1%
≤30d 42 +5.7% -4.4% 86% 43% -14.1%
≤90d 47 +3.8% -6.1% 83% 40% -13.7%
all 61 -0.8% -10.2% 80% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 38% -12.3%
10% -18.8% 11% -20.7%
15% -26.7% 3% -28.4%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$109 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1,602
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage454d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 78¢ $1,649 $1,550 −$98 (-6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 71¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $19 −$1 -7%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $8 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $104 +$13 +13%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,138 +$330 +29%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,391 +$30 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $765 +$67 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,570 +$109 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$5 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $297 +$8 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $222 +$15 +7%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Jun 22 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $113 +$13 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $97 +$21 +21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $234 +$24 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 +$22 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$9 +20%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 14 $105 +$25 +24%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $42 +$3 +6%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 13 $54 +$10 +18%
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? Mar 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $143 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $117 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $24 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $1,481 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 77¢ $705 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 84¢ $703 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $1,421 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $380 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 77¢ $403 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $783 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $9 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 76¢ $20 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $20 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $15 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $15 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $11 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $11 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $681 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $501 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $501 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,679 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $100 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $100 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $40 38h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $100 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $100 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,602.07 · official $1,608.06 (match) · 341 history records