Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc5fe…e320
politics · 71 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
−$12,619 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,772 · open −$509
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,320
Realized−$10,772
Unrealized−$509
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions12
Markets (closed)59 / 71
History coverage525d
Avg bet$2,820
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 12 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$436
14 days−$436
30 days−$2,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3,759 $3,570 −$189 (-5%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,118 $1,863 −$255 (-12%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,375 $1,312 −$62 (-5%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,050 $1,125 +$75 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1,020 $962 −$57 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $913 $898 −$16 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $549 $546 −$4 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $305 $316 +$11 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $307 $307 +$1 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $254 $235 −$19 (-7%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1,800 $0 −$1,800 (-100%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win 12 or more regular season games? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $2,582 $0 −$2,582 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $567 $0 −$567 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $309 $0 −$309 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2,101 $0 −$2,101 (-100%)
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $492 $0 −$492 (-100%)
Dolphins vs. Colts Dolphins 48¢ 0¢ $480 $0 −$480 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,880 $0 −$1,880 (-100%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3,250 $0 −$3,250 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $508 $0 −$508 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $8,828 $0 −$8,828 (-100%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $975 $0 −$975 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $600 −$436 -73%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2,866 −$1,362 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 17 $883 −$641 -72%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 17 $516 −$188 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $390 +$70 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $1,600 −$1,083 -68%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 10 $1,796 −$821 -46%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $922 +$4,073 +442%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 04 $666 −$222 -33%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 30 $6,643 −$735 -11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 03 $508 −$508 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 05 $17,075 −$4,895 -29%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $10,821 −$9,211 -85%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Sep 20 $309 −$309 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 18 $2,101 −$2,101 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $32,270 +$1,914 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $4,100 +$150 +4%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $3,250 −$3,250 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Sep 07 $1,000 +$723 +72%
Dolphins vs. Colts Sep 07 $480 −$480 -100%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win 12 or more regular season games? Sep 04 $2,582 −$2,582 -100%
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Sep 04 $492 −$492 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on September 1? Sep 01 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 30 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $1,295 −$335 -26%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $690 +$310 +45%
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano Aug 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Aug 06 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Aug 06 $6,431 −$6,431 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jul 13 $358 +$458 +128%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $4,841 +$460 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $3,760 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Jul 08 $1,434 +$53 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 08 $8,394 −$1,690 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $724 +$104 +14%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $502 +$1,774 +353%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 22 $4,498 −$1,479 -33%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $7,955 +$5,356 +67%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 21 $870 +$8,831 +1015%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Jun 16 $2,103 −$2,103 -100%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 16 $2,785 −$2,785 -100%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Jun 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Jun 16 $8,250 −$932 -11%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Feb 04 $1,576 −$992 -63%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Feb 03 $365 +$122 +34%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Feb 03 $1,833 +$247 +13%
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? Jan 25 $5,744 +$1,068 +19%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 23 $1,589 −$116 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 26% −$8,150
world 26% +$4,525
politics 20% +$9,980
other 16% −$14,204
tech 6% −$982
sports 2% +$3,050
crypto 2% −$2,872
culture 1% −$1,800
finance 1% −$829
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $867 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $3,612 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $186 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $258 41h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 42h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $221 42h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 42h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $283 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $164 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $525 23d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $160 24d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 24d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 25d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 25d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $62 25d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $890 25d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 25d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,186 25d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $145 25d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $249 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $243 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $328 25d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 28d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $78 28d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 28d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 28d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $95 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 92¢ $460 28d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -72.7% -75.3% 0% 0% -75.3%
≤30d 5 -52.7% -57.2% 20% 20% -67.9%
≤90d 11 -10.2% -18.7% 18% 18% -12.5%
all 59 +6.4% -3.8% 34% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 25% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 19% -22.5%
15% -21.4% 17% -30.0%
20% -29.1% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,320.33 · official $11,322.88 (match) · 814 history records