Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc5ff…abd0 sports 905 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,533 (+3%) realized +$4,597 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%432W / 469L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$2,493est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$579
7 days+$856
14 days−$97
30 days+$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$2,485
politics 5% +$200
other 3% −$263
world 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 51% -7.5%
≤30d 454 +4.4% -5.5% 48% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 901 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 46% -8.2%
all 901 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 46% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 46% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 45% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 42% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 38% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$150 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized+$4,597
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses432 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,493
Open positions4
Markets (closed)901 / 905
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $416 $413 −$3 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $263 $264 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 47¢ 46¢ $261 $253 −$8 (-3%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 16¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $317 −$277 -87%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $162 +$138 +85%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $309 +$132 +43%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $133 −$133 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $178 +$100 +56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 +$305 +122%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $263 +$204 +78%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $153 +$180 +117%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $283 +$272 +96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $250 +$50 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $261 +$294 +113%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $78 +$144 +186%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $264 +$183 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $227 +$112 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $240 +$60 +25%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $202 +$108 +53%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $170 +$163 +96%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $97 +$236 +245%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $244 −$244 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $150 +$405 +270%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $194 +$361 +186%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $217 +$25 +11%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $355 +$200 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $317 +$272 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $283 +$272 +96%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $239 −$239 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $345 +$210 +61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $216 +$191 +89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $299 −$172 -57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $339 +$6 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $159 +$160 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $193 +$178 +92%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $216 +$339 +156%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$52 +194%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $311 −$114 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $387 +$168 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $53 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $210 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 0¢ $0 6m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 8¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 8¢ $8 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 22¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 22¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 20¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 20¢ $32 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $4 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $0 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 79¢ $5 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 79¢ $35 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $67 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $6 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $22 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $7 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.77 · official $937.76 (match) · 3500 history records