Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc602…7fc1
other · 548 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$5,044 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,224 · open −$5,042
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$43,759
Realized+$5,224
Unrealized−$5,042
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses140 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions499
Markets (closed)261 / 548
Avg bet$125
Trades / day626.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 499 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,431
7 days+$5,224
14 days+$5,224
30 days+$5,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat? No 90¢ 81¢ $1,619 $1,455 −$165 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? No 89¢ 87¢ $931 $908 −$23 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-08 House seat? No 92¢ 86¢ $849 $798 −$51 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Yes 88¢ 83¢ $787 $742 −$45 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat? No 86¢ 84¢ $740 $719 −$21 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $745 $678 −$67 (-9%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $598 $594 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $503 $502 −$1 (-0%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 88¢ $439 $438 −$2 (-0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $433 $436 +$4 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 86¢ 91¢ $401 $426 +$25 (+6%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $415 $412 −$2 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 88¢ 81¢ $440 $405 −$35 (-8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $409 $403 −$6 (-2%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $382 $403 +$20 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 85¢ 82¢ $412 $398 −$15 (-4%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 85¢ 76¢ $425 $382 −$42 (-10%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $358 $374 +$16 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $307 $372 +$66 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 95¢ 89¢ $396 $371 −$25 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $420 $368 −$52 (-12%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $376 $362 −$14 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 96¢ $344 $345 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 74¢ 67¢ $370 $335 −$35 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $330 $332 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $568 −$7 -1%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $97 −$10 -10%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $118 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $165 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $134 −$22 -17%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 12 $455 −$14 -3%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular seaso Jun 11 $6 +$30 +550%
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $77 +$4 +5%
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French preside Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French president Jun 11 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Jun 11 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 11 $132 +$6 +5%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 11 $131 +$6 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 11 $41 +$19 +48%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $410 −$7 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $420 +$87 +21%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 11 $186 +$10 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $1,267 +$5 +0%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $13 +$15 +118%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $260 +$7 +3%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $126 +$8 +6%
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $465 +$101 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +168%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $348 +$533 +153%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $61 +$21 +35%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $81 +$34 +42%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +136%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $65 +$4 +6%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +130%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $18 −$9 -48%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Jun 11 $11 +$10 +92%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $67 −$24 -35%
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 11 $148 −$3 -2%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $175 +$67 +38%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 11 $219 −$3 -1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $400 +$25 +6%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $313 +$44 +14%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $62 +$72 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$2,744
world 17% +$15
politics 11% +$1,474
tech 11% +$1,282
finance 3% +$59
economics 2% +$129
sports 1% −$24
crypto 1% −$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 0m
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $33 25m
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $37 35m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 36m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 55m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 55m
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 56m
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 56m
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $84 57m
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $74 59m
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 1h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 46¢ $34 1h
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 1h
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $24 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 1h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $17 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $95 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 96¢ $344 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +73.2% +56.7% 54% 36% +5.1%
≤30d 261 +73.2% +56.7% 54% 36% +5.1%
≤90d 261 +73.2% +56.7% 54% 36% +5.1%
all 261 +73.2% +56.7% 54% 36% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover626.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.7% 36% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here +41.7% 30% -5.0%
15% +28.0% 27% -14.2%
20% +15.5% 20% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,758.86 · official $45,333.16 · 3500 history records