Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc605…6037 politics 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,198 (+1%) realized +$1,197 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$980per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$70
other 36% −$8
sports 13% +$1,274
culture 5% −$8
world 3% −$34
crypto 2% +$1
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 62 -10.6% -19.1% 10% 2% -9.2%
all 131 +1.3% -8.3% 34% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -8.7%
10% -17.1% 12% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 11% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,494) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$5 · ×6.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized+$1,197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage149d
Avg bet$980
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $793 $794 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,457 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,473 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,951 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $3,665 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,540 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 19 $691 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,293 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,378 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $460 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $530 +$2 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $4,748 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,873 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $2,454 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $8,283 −$8 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2,576 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 06 $1,101 +$683 +62%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $165 −$22 -13%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 28 $979 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 28m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $472 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $472 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $671 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $672 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $793 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,390 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,392 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,159 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,279 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,282 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $644 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $645 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,066 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $450 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,408 16d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,410 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $976 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $978 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,079 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,311 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.04 · official $794.04 (match) · 424 history records