Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc60a…2cca crypto 243 markets active 3d ago coverage 725d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$901 (-0%) realized −$893 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate72%174W / 67L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$709
economics 8% −$31
politics 8% −$41
sports 6% −$52
other 3% −$77
culture 1% −$1
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -17.1% -25.0% 73% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 68 -8.0% -16.7% 85% 0% -9.5%
all 241 -4.4% -13.5% 72% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,008) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

725d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$893
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses174 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 243
History coverage725d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $228 $224 −$5 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,006 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $96 −$21 -22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $999 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $312 −$56 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $730 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $880 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 23 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,087 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $998 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $996 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 16 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,027 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? May 07 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? May 06 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? May 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $1,506 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $663 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $335 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $683 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $316 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $505 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $500 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 7d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 7d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $998 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $782 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $217 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $974 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $65 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.00 · official $229.10 (match) · 640 history records