Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc60b…d9f7 sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,511 (-15%) realized −$11,798 · open −$713
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%95W / 139L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day94.8pace
Fees−$623est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$1,409
weather 29% −$4,831
other 17% −$12,122
crypto 8% −$3,224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -24.2% -31.5% 38% 35% -28.6%
≤30d 225 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 38% -29.0%
≤90d 234 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 38% -29.9%
all 234 -5.2% -14.3% 41% 38% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 38% -29.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -36.6%
15% -30.0% 36% -42.7%
20% -36.8% 35% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$354 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$11,798
Unrealized−$713
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses95 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$623
Open positions3
Markets (closed)234 / 244
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$334
Trades / day94.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 44¢ 92¢ $227 $473 +$246 (+108%)
Medjedovic vs. Humbert: Match O/U 21.5 Under 59¢ 17¢ $1,180 $341 −$839 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Yes 26¢ 9¢ $183 $63 −$120 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $125 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$71 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$25 -46%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $108 +$108 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $223 −$194 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $576 −$533 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $136 +$62 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $108 −$58 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$59 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $570 +$430 +75%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $465 −$465 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $340 −$340 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $390 +$610 +156%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Jun 16 $356 −$356 -100%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 15 $260 +$240 +92%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $340 +$802 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $401 −$337 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $109 +$91 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$100 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$112 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $98 +$100 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $98 +$100 +102%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $103 +$103 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $877.69 · official $877.69 (match) · 3500 history records