Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc60e…33d0
other · 521 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$487 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$511 · open +$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$400
Realized−$511
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses413 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions10
Markets (closed)511 / 521
History coverage182d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 10 History 511 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$231
14 days−$726
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 51¢ 58¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+15%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 82¢ 84¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Yes 21¢ 27¢ $40 $52 +$11 (+28%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? No 100¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 95¢ 96¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $38 −$1 (-4%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? No 20¢ 26¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+31%)
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 88¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $52 −$29 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$7 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$10 -19%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $576 −$10 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $608 +$8 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $416 −$11 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $314 +$18 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$17 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $28 −$13 -45%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $50 −$6 -13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $109 −$31 -28%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $50 −$6 -11%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 −$2 -5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $50 −$3 -5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $165 −$61 -37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $101 −$30 -30%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 −$53 -53%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 06 $51 −$16 -32%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $9 +$7 +76%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $154 −$79 -51%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $67 +$6 +8%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $52 +$20 +38%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $156 −$76 -49%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $120 −$68 -56%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $77 −$11 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Jun 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $24 +$1 +3%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 06 $45 +$5 +11%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $574 +$12 +2%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $0 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $19 −$12 -62%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 9? Jun 06 $0 $0 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$186
crypto 6% +$6
tech 4% +$9
sports 3% −$516
weather 2% +$2
politics 2% +$4
culture 1% +$13
finance 0% −$190
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 23m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $23 34m
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 95¢ $5 40m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $52 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 82¢ $52 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 20¢ $18 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -38.9% -44.7% 17% 9% -16.9%
≤30d 85 -28.6% -35.4% 48% 7% -23.0%
≤90d 207 -11.0% -19.4% 76% 5% -11.2%
all 511 -4.2% -13.3% 81% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.08 · official $400.11 (match) · 1310 history records