Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc614…9d44 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,467 (-18%) realized −$1,448 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$226
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,172
other 15% −$218
economics 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$76
politics 0% −$39
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 50% -36.8%
≤30d 6 +4.5% -5.4% 67% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 19 -34.8% -41.0% 42% 32% -19.0%
all 26 -18.9% -26.6% 42% 31% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 31% -27.2%
10% -33.6% 23% -34.2%
15% -40.0% 19% -40.5%
20% -45.9% 15% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$250 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$1,448
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage241d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $380 $382 +$2 (+1%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 28¢ 18¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $128 +$195 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $219 −$214 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $278 −$273 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $495 +$105 +21%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $144 +$6 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $489 +$111 +23%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $170 +$130 +76%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $39 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 12 $316 −$312 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $232 −$228 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League May 12 $883 +$117 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? May 06 $60 −$58 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? May 06 $19 −$18 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4? May 04 $45 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America May 04 $569 −$11 -2%
Magic vs. Suns Feb 21 $940 −$940 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $495 +$405 +82%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Raptors vs. Thunder Jan 28 $266 +$1,134 +426%
Spurs vs. Jazz Jan 22 $576 −$576 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Nov 06 $44 −$17 -38%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $61 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $383 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $133 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $128 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $219 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $278 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $495 8d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 81¢ $489 37d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $170 39d
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? BUY No 66¢ $3 43d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 44d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY PlayTime 52¢ $316 45d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY M80 38¢ $10 46d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY M80 38¢ $2 46d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY M80 38¢ $4 46d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY M80 38¢ $216 46d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $883 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 52d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $4 53d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $144 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 54d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America BUY R2 Esports Club 51¢ $246 55d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America SELL Crashers 49¢ $58 55d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Crashers 50¢ $61 55d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America BUY R2 Esports Club 50¢ $12 55d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America BUY R2 Esports Club 50¢ $250 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.18 · official $423.11 (match) · 59 history records