Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc616…3571 other 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,943 (-4%) realized −$1,930 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%161W / 175L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days−$888
14 days−$937
30 days−$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,304
sports 12% −$402
crypto 7% −$469
weather 2% −$61
world 1% +$71
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -45.5% -50.7% 28% 10% -17.4%
≤30d 81 -35.9% -42.0% 36% 17% -15.5%
≤90d 180 -16.7% -24.6% 47% 19% -12.1%
all 336 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 26% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 26% -13.3%
10% -26.0% 19% -21.6%
15% -33.2% 13% -29.2%
20% -39.7% 10% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$1,930
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses161 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)336 / 313
History coverage158d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 84¢ $220 $214 −$6 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$8 -793%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $134 −$11 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $281 +$18 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 −$161 -40%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $723 −$43 -6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $460 −$113 -24%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 −$10 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $53 −$5 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $401 +$39 +10%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $146 −$2 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $401 +$11 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $106 −$9 -9%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $762 −$496 -65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $502 +$4 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $450 −$244 -54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +89%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $440 +$55 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $702 −$18 -2%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $415 +$75 +18%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $167 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $33 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $123 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $299 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $281 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $240 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 3h
DR Congo leading at halftime? SELL No 92¢ $224 7h
DR Congo leading at halftime? SELL No 92¢ $22 7h
DR Congo leading at halftime? SELL No 92¢ $154 7h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $401 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $399 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $282 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $322 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $347 23h
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $460 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $293 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $48 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $53 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 96¢ $0 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 98¢ $338 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 98¢ $82 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 98¢ $8 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 98¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 98¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.82 · official $265.29 (match) · 1438 history records