Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc617…8034 crypto 811 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,629 (-11%) realized −$5,658 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%397W / 413L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days−$1,078
14 days−$2,429
30 days−$4,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 51% -16.0%
≤30d 639 -7.0% -15.9% 49% 49% -20.4%
≤90d 810 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 49% -21.0%
all 810 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 49% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 49% -21.0%
10% -24.5% 48% -28.5%
15% -31.8% 47% -35.4%
20% -38.5% 46% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$5,658
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses397 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)810 / 811
History coverage63d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $35 $64 +$29 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 363 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $357 +$313 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$54 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$44 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $278 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.49 · official $41.16 · 1391 history records