Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc618…0b85 other 202 markets active 1d ago coverage 738d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$622 (+9%) realized +$619 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%103W / 96L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$49
14 days−$52
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$774
sports 2% −$53
world 1% −$70
politics 1% −$23
economics 0% −$21
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 71% 71% +0.1%
≤30d 17 -21.4% -28.9% 53% 53% -25.0%
≤90d 37 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 57% -6.3%
all 199 +5.1% -4.9% 52% 52% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 52% -1.5%
10% -14.0% 48% -11.0%
15% -22.3% 42% -19.6%
20% -30.0% 32% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses103 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage738d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$11 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$49 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $46 −$46 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $69 +$23 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $237 +$73 +31%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $10 +$17 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $34 +$24 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $40 −$6 -16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 04 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $20 +$70 +344%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $78 +$49 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $112 +$66 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $170 +$41 +24%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $118 −$117 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $150 +$160 +107%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $74 +$90 +121%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $140 +$35 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $87 +$53 +61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $149 +$37 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $30 +$18 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $69 +$41 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $100 +$49 +49%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $129 +$41 +32%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $48 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 19¢ $5 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $14 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 23d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 23d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 60¢ $20 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $26 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 83¢ $22 25d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $69 37d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 37d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $237 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 47d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 47d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.57 · official $49.57 (match) · 325 history records