Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc61d…b1a5 crypto 59 markets active 5h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%53W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$29
tech 4% +$1
other 3% −$1
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.22 per $1 lost it wins $19.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses53 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage234d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $440 $439 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $90 on June 16? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? Jun 17 $255 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 15? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 15? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 14? Jun 15 $259 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 14? Jun 15 $179 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? Jun 14 $169 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 13? Jun 14 $251 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 13? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 12? Jun 13 $238 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? Jun 13 $199 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 11? Jun 12 $135 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 11? Jun 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 11? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 10? Jun 11 $371 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 10? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $435 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 9? Jun 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 9? Jun 10 $257 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 8? Jun 09 $365 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 7? Jun 07 $434 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 6? Jun 06 $434 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 5? Jun 06 $277 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 5? Jun 06 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 5? Jun 05 $433 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 3? Jun 04 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 3? Jun 03 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $432 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.80 on January 14? Jan 14 $856 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1,323 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 13? Jan 12 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 January 5-11? Jan 12 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.50 on January 11? Jan 11 $298 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.60 on January 11? Jan 11 $1,021 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 5 above $295? Jan 10 $1,317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 7? Jan 07 $1,316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 6? Jan 06 $1,315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 5? Jan 05 $1,313 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 4? Jan 04 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,311 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on December 31? Dec 31 $1,308 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on December 30? Dec 30 $1,307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 29? Dec 29 $295 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,304 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $440 4h
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $28 28h
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 28h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $57 28h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $155 28h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 28h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $129 3d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $159 3d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $251 4d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $137 5d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $101 5d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $150 5d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $49 5d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $114 6d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 6d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $116 6d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $77 6d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $371 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.16 · official $439.16 (match) · 136 history records