Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc61f…35a6 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$444 (-4%) realized −$446 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%54W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day79.8pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$839
other 31% +$281
world 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +24.0% +12.2% 65% 61% -14.6%
≤30d 83 +24.0% +12.2% 65% 61% -14.6%
≤90d 83 +24.0% +12.2% 65% 61% -14.6%
all 83 +24.0% +12.2% 65% 61% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.2% 61% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.5% 58% -22.8%
15% -8.3% 42% -30.2%
20% -17.3% 34% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$138 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$669
Realized−$446
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses54 / 29
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions10
Markets (closed)83 / 95
History coverage4d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 42¢ $201 $203 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 62¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 81¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $283 −$283 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $912 −$912 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,092 −$1,092 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $16 +$4 +24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $264 +$92 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $86 +$37 +43%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $92 −$30 -32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $634 +$283 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $36 +$57 +160%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $786 +$439 +56%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $100 +$30 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $161 −$100 -62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $201 +$97 +48%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $35 +$2 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$57 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32 +$24 +75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$117 +233%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$34 +33%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $435 +$266 +61%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $79 +$141 +178%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$265 +525%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $133 +$332 +250%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $206 +$229 +111%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $296 +$239 +81%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$33 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 +$13 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $87 +$85 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$32 +137%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$17 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $23 12m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $53 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $43 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $90 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $12 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $19 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $6 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $9 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $23 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $100 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $50 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $50 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $50 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 27¢ $51 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.11 · official $669.12 (match) · 397 history records