Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc622…e1a4 other 98 markets active 2d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+7%) realized +$27 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%30W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$10
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$29
crypto 22% −$3
sports 5% $0
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.4% +2.6% 44% 44% -19.5%
≤30d 16 +17.3% +6.1% 38% 38% +4.1%
≤90d 77 +8.2% -2.1% 29% 25% -11.1%
all 90 +10.2% -0.3% 33% 29% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 29% -4.7%
10% -9.9% 24% -13.8%
15% -18.6% 20% -22.1%
20% -26.6% 19% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$37 +588%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $1 +$5 +478%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $1 +$5 +502%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $1 +$7 +701%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $23 −$20 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $6 +$28 +443%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $3 +$48 +1616%
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026? Mar 31 $4 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Mar 31 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $4 −$2 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $9 −$8 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan w BUY 23¢ $5 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 37h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 37h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will BUY 28¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N BUY 36¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.42 · official $13.42 (match) · 224 history records