Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc623…9c7d sports 689 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$869 (-3%) realized −$890 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%416W / 270L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$130
14 days−$172
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$884
other 1% −$86
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 61% -28.6%
≤30d 103 +4.8% -5.2% 60% 58% -15.6%
≤90d 453 +2.5% -7.3% 63% 60% -11.8%
all 686 +1.2% -8.4% 61% 58% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 58% -12.1%
10% -17.2% 51% -20.5%
15% -25.2% 42% -28.2%
20% -32.5% 32% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$890
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses416 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions3
Markets (closed)686 / 689
History coverage128d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 58¢ 100¢ $19 $33 +$14 (+72%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Virtus.pro 56¢ 100¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+78%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $17 +$12 +67%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $22 +$25 +114%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $5 +$7 +128%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $17 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $9 +$8 +93%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 +$4 +89%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $141 +$58 +41%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $28 −$25 -89%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ shots Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +26%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $40 +$11 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$55 +536%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qua Jun 12 $20 +$11 +55%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $6 +$11 +172%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$4 +20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$22 +81%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $20 +$32 +158%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$9 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$15 +146%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $80 +$27 +33%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $10 7m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $29 2h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $17 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $48 19h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $22 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $22 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $16 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 15¢ $3 25h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $12 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 48¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 43¢ $5 26h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 93¢ $17 45h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $17 45h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $9 47h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $9 47h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $202 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $131 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 44¢ $20 6d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $20 6d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 77¢ $50 6d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $35 6d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 80¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 51¢ $25 6d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 52¢ $3 6d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.70 · official $58.70 (match) · 1447 history records