Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc624…40ba other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,544 (-2%) realized −$1,544 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$762per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$43
other 39% +$15
sports 14% −$1,525
crypto 2% +$3
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -6.2% -15.1% 6% 1% -10.0%
all 123 -4.5% -13.6% 19% 11% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 11% -11.0%
10% -21.9% 11% -19.5%
15% -29.4% 7% -27.3%
20% -36.3% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$939) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage129d
Avg bet$762
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $527 $527 +$0 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $388 $388 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,750 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $362 +$1 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $564 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? May 19 $371 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $313 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $730 +$2 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $856 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $2,212 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $3,155 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,871 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,799 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $683 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $1,802 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $704 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $388 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $389 4h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $390 6h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $388 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $389 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $390 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $391 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $527 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $726 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $727 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $816 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $817 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $906 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $922 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $924 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $877 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $764 13d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $783 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $785 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $892 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $751 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $752 17d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $913 17d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $914 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.73 · official $914.73 (match) · 410 history records