Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C6 0xc624…ee24 politics 573 markets active 10h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,969 (+11%) realized +$17,570 · open +$1,399
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate64%323W / 180L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$17,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$1,388
14 days+$1,000
30 days+$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4,928
politics 42% +$4,747
other 9% +$297
finance 1% +$128
tech 0% +$112
culture 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$112
sports 0% −$74
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.8% -22.9% 56% 25% -0.3%
≤30d 158 +9.2% -1.2% 61% 23% -7.0%
≤90d 503 +21.1% +9.6% 64% 29% -4.0%
all 503 +21.1% +9.6% 64% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 29% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 16% -13.2%
15% -10.5% 11% -21.6%
20% -19.2% 7% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$41 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$17,036
Realized+$17,570
Unrealized+$1,399
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses323 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions76
Markets (closed)503 / 573
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $3,544 $4,329 +$785 (+22%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 63¢ $804 $796 −$9 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $750 $778 +$28 (+4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $706 $743 +$36 (+5%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $642 $655 +$13 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $588 $642 +$54 (+9%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $636 $630 −$6 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 65¢ 68¢ $550 $569 +$19 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $506 $482 −$24 (-5%)
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $471 $460 −$10 (-2%)
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $354 $367 +$13 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $337 $363 +$26 (+8%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 91¢ $264 $351 +$87 (+33%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $328 $351 +$22 (+7%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $326 $321 −$5 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $285 $301 +$16 (+6%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 73¢ 95¢ $225 $294 +$69 (+31%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $251 $274 +$22 (+9%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $227 $261 +$34 (+15%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $225 $220 −$5 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $198 $216 +$17 (+9%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $201 $210 +$9 (+4%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $149 $180 +$31 (+21%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $164 $168 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $630 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $2,646 +$155 +6%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $504 +$124 +25%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $60 −$35 -57%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,002 −$44 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $715 +$274 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $420 +$109 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $330 +$48 +14%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 15 $150 +$13 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $325 +$92 +28%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$8 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,220 −$18 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $205 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $2,477 +$754 +30%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 13 $49 −$9 -19%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 13 $516 −$57 -11%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $60 +$7 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,271 +$22 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $624 +$37 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $360 −$55 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $150 −$20 -14%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 11 $55 −$14 -26%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2,257 +$1,625 +72%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -47%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,442 −$875 -61%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $117 −$4 -3%
Will Trump say "Lion" this week? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 99¢ $11 10h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 99¢ $38 10h
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 23h
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 80¢ $23 23h
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 80¢ $17 23h
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 23h
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 23h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $120 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 25h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 27h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 28h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $102 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $253 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $100 30h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 31h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 98¢ $4 40h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $503 40h
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 41h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 99¢ $5 41h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 99¢ $1 42h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 99¢ $10 44h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 95¢ $60 44h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 96¢ $50 44h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 48¢ $51 44h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 95¢ $100 44h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 96¢ $300 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,036.45 · official $17,027.02 (match) · 3500 history records