Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc626…9437 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+3%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$418
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$37
other 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.5% -48.0% 29% 29% -49.4%
≤30d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% -7.2%
≤90d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% -7.2%
all 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 55% -7.2%
10% -11.4% 55% -16.0%
15% -20.0% 55% -24.2%
20% -27.8% 55% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$137 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 51¢ 50¢ $143 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $142 +$138 +97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $155 −$153 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $142 −$140 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $137 −$135 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $138 −$136 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $122 −$120 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 +$128 +105%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $193 +$187 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $93 +$87 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$82 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $145 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $142 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 39h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $142 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $137 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $138 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $122 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $122 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $193 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $93 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $81 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.30 · official $141.30 (match) · 18 history records