Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc629…4f68 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$2
other 19% +$1
politics 17% $0
sports 13% −$1
economics 12% $0
crypto 4% −$9
tech 3% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 56 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 2% -10.0%
all 70 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage332d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$3 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $46 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $26 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $25 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $25 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $32 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $33 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $30 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.15 · official $27.19 · 283 history records