Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C6 0xc629…42cf sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$15 (-6%) realized −$15 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	18	+3.9%	-6.0%	67%	61%	-15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	61%	-15.7%
10%	-15.0%	39%	-23.7%
15%	-23.2%	11%	-31.1%
20%	-30.8%	6%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$15

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage171d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie	Jan 27	$21	−$21	-100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	Jan 27	$19	+$2	+11%
Kings vs. Knicks	Jan 27	$19	$0	-1%
76ers vs. Hornets	Jan 27	$14	+$6	+41%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G	Jan 26	$10	+$3	+33%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8	Jan 26	$9	+$1	+11%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	Jan 26	$6	$0	+1%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	Jan 26	$3	$0	+0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia:	Jan 26	$8	+$1	+16%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S	Jan 26	$7	+$1	+14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua	Jan 26	$7	$0	-1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu	Jan 26	$5	+$2	+30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?	Jan 06	$29	−$29	-100%
Bulls vs. Celtics	Jan 06	$22	+$5	+24%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Jan 06	$3	−$1	-31%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	Jan 05	$18	+$4	+24%
Packers vs. Vikings	Jan 04	$17	+$4	+23%
Timberwolves vs. Heat	Jan 04	$9	+$7	+75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$45	1h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie	BUY AM Gaming	55¢	$21	147d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	BUY LNG Esports	90¢	$19	147d
Kings vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	84¢	$19	147d
Kings vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	85¢	$19	147d
76ers vs. Hornets	BUY Hornets	71¢	$14	147d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G	BUY Team Nemesis	75¢	$10	147d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8	SELL Power Rangers	100¢	$10	147d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8	BUY Power Rangers	90¢	$9	147d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	SELL Yes	88¢	$6	147d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	SELL Yes	10¢	$3	147d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	BUY Yes	87¢	$6	148d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?	BUY Yes	10¢	$3	148d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia:	SELL REKONIX	78¢	$9	148d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia:	BUY REKONIX	67¢	$8	148d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S	SELL Nemiga	100¢	$8	148d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S	BUY Nemiga	88¢	$7	148d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua	SELL Vici Gaming	89¢	$7	148d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua	BUY Vici Gaming	90¢	$7	148d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu	SELL T1 Academy	100¢	$7	148d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu	BUY T1 Academy	77¢	$5	148d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?	BUY Yes	71¢	$29	167d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	168d
Bulls vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	81¢	$22	169d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards	BUY Timberwolves	81¢	$18	169d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$3	169d
Packers vs. Vikings	SELL Vikings	100¢	$21	169d
Packers vs. Vikings	BUY Vikings	81¢	$17	170d
Timberwolves vs. Heat	BUY Timberwolves	57¢	$9	171d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.52 · official $44.52 (match) · 36 history records