Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc62a…42fe crypto 1310 markets active 2d ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$225 (+2%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%881W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$261
14 days−$252
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$32
sports 3% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -24.9% -32.1% 43% 42% -48.2%
≤30d 343 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 38% -22.2%
≤90d 1326 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 57% -13.0%
all 1326 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 57% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 57% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 47% -21.3%
15% -27.7% 32% -28.9%
20% -34.8% 19% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses881 / 445
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1326 / 1310
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1326 Trades
no open positions (382 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records