Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc62a…099a sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+6%) realized +$213 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$116
14 days+$126
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$24
other 16% +$213
crypto 10% +$46
politics 6% −$36
world 6% −$80
weather 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +37.0% +23.9% 69% 69% +35.5%
≤30d 19 +39.8% +26.5% 68% 68% +24.1%
≤90d 88 +13.2% +2.4% 58% 57% -0.3%
all 128 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 52% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 52% -4.0%
10% -14.1% 51% -13.2%
15% -22.4% 46% -21.5%
20% -30.0% 37% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 61
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)128 / 138
History coverage161d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $125 $148 +$23 (+18%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $180 $142 −$38 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$71 +77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +64%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$21 +206%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 06 $20 +$25 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $31 +$43 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 20 $10 +$15 +146%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 20 $15 +$13 +86%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 17 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $10 +$37 +365%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $30 +$3 +11%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $79 −$79 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $72 −$71 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $130 −$128 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $63 −$62 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $22 −$22 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $20 +$8 +42%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 19 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 +$23 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $20 +$8 +40%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $207 −$50 -24%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $120 +$49 +41%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $60 +$117 +196%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $20 +$7 +35%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 05 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 05 $15 +$5 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 05 $20 +$5 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 57¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $15 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $15 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $10 14d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 21d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 30¢ $20 21d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 21¢ $20 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 44¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.98 · official $501.98 (match) · 422 history records