Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc62a…f2de crypto 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22,065 (+14%) realized +$22,065 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate78%403W / 111L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day163.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -33.4% -39.7% 57% 13% -26.7%
≤30d 514 -7.8% -16.6% 78% 14% -13.8%
≤90d 514 -7.8% -16.6% 78% 14% -13.8%
all 514 -7.8% -16.6% 78% 14% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 14% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 8% -22.1%
15% -31.8% 5% -29.6%
20% -38.5% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$177 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$22,065
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses403 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 453
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day163.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$66 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$86 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $872 −$872 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $559 −$1,118 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $269 −$538 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $726 −$726 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $368 −$368 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $962 −$962 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $772 −$772 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.40 · official $100.00 (match) · 3500 history records