Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc62b…1f5c world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$16
other 15% +$38
politics 9% −$31
sports 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$9
culture 3% +$6
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 40% -15.6%
≤30d 5 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 40% -15.6%
≤90d 18 -58.8% -62.7% 22% 22% -62.7%
all 30 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 37% -9.6%
10% -35.2% 37% -18.3%
15% -41.5% 30% -26.2%
20% -47.2% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage126d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 37¢ 48¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jun 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $21 −$3 -17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Apr 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Akimbo Esports (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Master Apr 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Valorant: MIBR vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Mar 02 $50 −$13 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $50 −$24 -48%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $108 +$4 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 28 $30 +$55 +182%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$83 +167%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $60 +$38 +63%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 20 $20 −$11 -53%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 24h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 24h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 32d
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY No 61¢ $5 36d
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 36d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 36d
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 36d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 36d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 36d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 71¢ $10 42d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner BUY Vitality 65¢ $10 61d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 37¢ $20 61d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $20 61d
Valorant: MIBR vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY LOUD 16¢ $10 61d
Counter-Strike: regain vs Akimbo Esports (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Master BUY Akimbo Esports 72¢ $10 61d
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 61d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 39¢ $37 109d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $26 109d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 52¢ $50 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 110d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 111d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.78 · official $79.56 (match) · 104 history records